Can't understand

This is what's happenned (server Gatow):

Last week my loads from MIA to EZE where 100%. I'm the only operator of the route, at the top of the ORS with a rating of 94. This week, they went down from 100% to 66% to 33%. The other way (EZE-MIA) is still at 100%

What's going on? AGEX has more or less stayed the same, so it can't be it. And the fact that I'm at the top of the ORS doesn't make me think there's a competitor offering a connecting flight better than mine...

Something similar's happenning with other routes, though there is competition, so not sure if it's the same thing. But my SLF has dropped more than 12 points between last week and this week, with no major change in competitors, prices or AGEX...

Maybe your interline partner is supplying less interline passengers. Check your statistics how many direct pax you had then and now, and how many from external source.

and how can you tell there isn't a change in competition? there is an indefinate number of possible connections/hubs. Even if their ORS rating is lower than yours, if you adds enough connections, your SLF will drop eventually.

Also, maybe, the problem is a completely different one. Actually, adding a new connection to your network might render an already existing one unprofitable, as transfer pax might fill up a connection flight, that can no longer be booked by pax on the flight you are looking at. same goes for interlining partners. he might have added new connections that now fill up those flights, your flight used to connect to.

also, be so kind and add your thoughts and questions to current threads dealing with the same issue, e.g. http://community.airlinesim.aero/topic/6822-loads-just-go-down/ as welll as use a more meaningful title to make this thread more accessible for others looking for answers. thank you.

rubiohiguey: It could be, haven't thought on that. But the thing is, I cannot see flight details before this week, so cannot tell how much traffic I was getting from my IL partners. It doesn't appear to be the case though, I've checked some other routes and it's the same story: EZE-BOG is down from 88% to 33% from Sunday last week to Monday this week. No change at all. The other way around (BOG-EZE) is booked solid (100%).

Yukawa: That's not it, I have not changed my flightplan this week.

And now that I've checked, this is going on everywhere in the region: My competitors are suffering the same problem. And my other airlines as well (Aguila del Paraguay and Aguila Argentina). So, it seems there's been a huge drop in demand, for no reason, since AGEX is relatively stable.

also, be so kind and add your thoughts and questions to current threads dealing with the same issue, e.g. http://community.airlinesim.aero/topic/6822-loads-just-go-down/ as welll as use a more meaningful title to make this thread more accessible for others looking for answers. thank you.

Didn't want to reply there since the demand problems in Aspern are related to a huge drop in AGEX (I have an airline there, I have been micromanaging a lot to keep my loads more or less stable). But you're right about the title. Sorry, cannot seem to change it now.

Actually my cargo company is experiencing an overall 10% drop these days, with absolutely no explanation. It cannot even be found in AGEX! It's quite annoying.. (also playing Gatow). Routes, which has been up for months, with more than 30 planes flying on it 5 times daily, is suddently decreasing.

I hope it’s just a random drop i demand - I havent seen any new competitors or significant routes made the last 3 weeks on Gatow, so competition cannot be blamed…

Actually my cargo company is experiencing an overall 10% drop these days, with absolutely no explanation. It cannot even be found in AGEX! It's quite annoying.. (also playing Gatow). Routes, which has been up for months, with more than 30 planes flying on it 5 times daily, is suddently decreasing.

I hope it’s just a random drop i demand - I havent seen any new competitors or significant routes made the last 3 weeks on Gatow, so competition cannot be blamed…

Thanks for sharing. That reinforces my theory that there's an unexplained drop in overall demand. Maybe AS can look into it?

As far as I know there was no adjustment from our side but I would think it is the AGEX .... if you look at the AGEX figures it dropped over the last 90 days by 269 points and over the Last 90 days by 127 points. Thats quite a big drawback in demand. And people are adjusting by reducing their prices, you may have lost IL connections from companies that went bust, competitors are upgrading their seats and service plus that the overall demand reduces .... so by the end of the day a route that has been serviced 5 times daily now has only demand for 3 daily flights ......

As far as I know there was no adjustment from our side but I would think it is the AGEX .... if you look at the AGEX figures it dropped over the last 90 days by 269 points and over the Last 90 days by 127 points. Thats quite a big drawback in demand. And people are adjusting by reducing their prices, you may have lost IL connections from companies that went bust, competitors are upgrading their seats and service plus that the overall demand reduces .... so by the end of the day a route that has been serviced 5 times daily now has only demand for 3 daily flights ......

As you say, AGEX has lost 117 points in the last 30 days. But I've managed through that. The SLF drop I've experienced started THIS week, and it's been from Sunday to Monday, so in ONE DAY, load factors dropped significantly. None of the companies I have IL agreements with went bust on Monday, nor any competitor has made any adjustment that I can see.

I am not sure but the AGEX is not going up or down in a 1:1 correlation. So I think that maybe a drop below a certain threashold might end up in reducing maybe 5% (just a random number I tool) in one go .... I don't know how the AGEX is programmed so its a wild guess for me as well.... but it could be one explanation

It chamged from sunday to monday?

, sounds to me, like the AGEX hit your personalthreshold, meaning: so far, your ratings and co kept you aflowed but now the competition gets the pax. Maybe some compeitors changed prices, seats, service, etc.

when the week changed, new statistics were generated. Maybe, the decline already started a few days ago but did not become apparent until the new statistics onmonday made it very clear.

right now this effect at gatow is driven by a player with very competitve offers

It chamged from sunday to monday?

, sounds to me, like the AGEX hit your personalthreshold, meaning: so far, your ratings and co kept you aflowed but now the competition gets the pax. Maybe some compeitors changed prices, seats, service, etc.

when the week changed, new statistics were generated. Maybe, the decline already started a few days ago but did not become apparent until the new statistics onmonday made it very clear.

Check my first message, and you'll see it's not that.

Besides, AGEX has been going down, but this week INCREASED. So, again, no, it's not AGEX.

If it's not AGEX, and you haven't done anything to alter your flight routes (time/frequency/etc), then it's someone else having better connections and ratings, plain and simple.

Something must be going wrong here... I carried LESS passengers than the previous week, LOWERED my prices because of SLF dropping, but somehow tripled my income :huh:

And before you ask, no, there's no increase in dividens or any other miscellaneous profits...

If it's not AGEX, and you haven't done anything to alter your flight routes (time/frequency/etc), then it's someone else having better connections and ratings, plain and simple.

It's not. As I've said in my previous messages, I'm on top at the ORS on the routes mentioned and my competitors (2 in EZE) have not bought any more planes, nor changed their routes, nor lowered their prices, nor changed their seats

You are forgetting that your competitors are not only companies in Argentina (direct competitors), but also in Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia and Peru. Traffic flows, especially by  Brazilian, Paraguayan, or Chilean competitor can have a dramatic effect on your load factors.

It's not. As I've said in my previous messages, I'm on top at the ORS on the routes mentioned and my competitors (2 in EZE) have not bought any more planes, nor changed their routes, nor lowered their prices, nor changed their seats

You may be misunderstanding what I'm saying. Those are the only factors that matter in passenger loads. AGEX, ORS ratings, and connections (which includes traffic patterns). If it's not the AGEX, and it's not the ORS, it has to be the connections.

It's not. As I've said in my previous messages, I'm on top at the ORS on the routes mentioned and my competitors (2 in EZE) have not bought any more planes, nor changed their routes, nor lowered their prices, nor changed their seats

Just trying to support what caithes is aiming at:

Your ORS-rating on MIA-EZE is only relevant for pax booking this very route.

Let’s make it a drastic example for you to understand:

What if 66% of pax were actually only connecting on your MIA-EZE but booked JFK-EZE?

What if your competitor installed a nonstop JFK-EZE? 66% of your load is gone without seeing any change in ORS.