Low demands on Nicosia

Hi all,

Have been playing airline sim for a while now and have been struggling recently with really low demand on routes between major airports which should and did support 7-10 aircraft per day last year. I can now barely fill one aircraft! Is the agex system ever going to increase as I’m now shutting routes all over the place just to try and stop huge loses on once profitable routes?

On another note has anyone else noticed the drop off in users on Nicosia? At its height there were 1200 airlines on here now it’s less than 300 but demand is even lower? That doesn’t figure! If there are less airlines surly there should be increase demand???

It’s a shame as I really enjoyed airline sim before agex was introduced!

I have noticed a drop in all of the game worlds.

I personally think that the game is becoming harder for no particular reason. Whenever I travel on any flight, they are usually 99% full, the reason for which is a ‘REAL’ airline is responsible for its own marketing, but on AS you are reliant on a system to randomly choose your flight.

On the other hand I have noticed one player on Croydon (China Based) now opening a flood of airlines in the Caribbean due to the allowing of foreign investment. This means that players who want to open an airline in the Caribbean will find it more difficult as this China based airline is taking the proverbial.

There are a few rumbles in the forums at the moment, which are all related to the enjoyment and realism of AS, and I agree with a few of these comments, but AS are not making the game any easier.

Hi,

if the AGEX drops from 1000 to 700 it means there are now 30% less passengers. If you had 10 fully booked planes and you now barely fill one plane, that would mean the AGEX on Nicosia has dropped from 1000 to 100 over the past months.

I don’t play on Nicosia, but I doubt the AGEX dropped that much.

However, imagine that offer and demand were perfectly balanced on a certain route. In that case your planes - and your competitors planes - would all be fully booked, whatever your and their ratings. But if passenger demand drops by 30%, the airline with the lowest ORS rating will loose more than 30% of its passengers because passengers prefer flights with high ratings. So that is a possible cause.

But even before the introduction of the AGEX passenger loads fluctuated… you (for example) get many passengers from airport A to your hub because they use your transfer flights to other airports. Then a new airline emerges in airport A and launches direct flights to these other airports. You will loose the transfer passengers because they prefer a direct flight. And other airlines also have an impact on your seat loads in different ways.

@Betty_Jets: how do you check passenger demand on all game worlds ?

And if passengers book their tickets randomly, I have won the lottery ;)

Jan

Just this week I’ve had two interlining partners cease operations, one of them being a big company with both a fair domestic operation, and an extensive long-haul international presence from its country.

The AGEX is just too volatile! Today its down, your loads start slipping down, and of course after a while you’re forced to cut capacity. Then all of a sudden it starts to go up again and you feel like you shouldn’t have done what you did. So what do you do? You increase capacity again, but a few days later it starts to drop down again. It becomes frustrating! The AS team says that we cannot predict AGEX because its random, and that simulates reality. But I don’t believe it to be entirely true, because in reality we can forecast demand, and although its not 100% without fault, it does have pretty low margin of error. And in the real world forecasters do have some sense if the market is going to go down. It might be a financial crises, a war, etc, but they do have some indicators to help them. What does AGEX provides the players? Nothing!

Of all the recent changes to AS, the introduction of AGEX is the one I actually like. It forces the players to pay more attention to their airline’s expenses and perhaps plan the network more carefully. It may be argued that AGEX is just another factor that makes AS more time consuming, that is also true, and some huge airlines went bust just because they were to big and required to much real-life time to be adjusted accordingly. The developers decide on how time-consuming they want AS to be, and depending on that AS will appeal to different target groups. Right now, I hate it how much time it takes to move the schedule from one aircraft to another (similar or not), as there is no special tool for that currently, while the issue has became extremely actual with the introduction of the new aircraft market system. On the other hand, I like it that AS allows me to forget about it completely for a week or even a month if I get short on free time and then continue with my airline after that with no or minimal in-game losses.

One thing I completely agree with, however, is that AGEX should be predictable with a certain (high) degree of accuracy, i.e. a forecast should be available to players for at least 1 year ahead, better 3.

Hi,

I also had two big interlining partners who deleted in the past weeks: Eiman and Air Mandarina. Both of them were highly profitable. As far as I know they were a bit bored with their airline or wanted a new challenge on another game world.

Ignore the daily changes. They are not that big, and planes get bookings over 3 days anyway. The AGEX in Tempelhof is now 30% lower than when it was introduced, and that is a significant change. But many players have moved to Pearls (like the two players I mentioned above). Anyway, my average seat load is still above 94%.

Airlines with a seat load of 75% get into serious trouble if they loose 5% of their passengers. But how many real airlines survive with average seat loads below 80% ? So far my seat loads have not fluctuated more than 5%.

Another thing. The games goes faster than reality. We all want a fleet of 100 aircraft within a few months after we start with our 10 million. I guess it is normal that the simulated economy also changes at a faster rate.

Sure. Next year global air traffic will increase with 2% or 3%.

That is… if no idiot flies a Boeing into a sky scraper. If no idiot starts shooting at oil tankers in the strait of Hormuz. If the euro survives its problems. If Israel doesn’t attack Iran. If China doesn’t slide into a recession. And so on.

Anyway, I believe introducing the AGEX was a good idea.

Jan

Well, for me the airline that I’m talking about was profitable, until AGEX came up, and this week before it declared bankruptcy it had to get an emergency loan. So it is not because of boredom. And the same goes for many companies that have defaulted and might have to in the future.

Of course I’m not going to change my whole network just because today and yesterday the market went down by 12 points. But when I see the market go constantly down three weeks in a row, I adjust my airline, then right after that the market picks up again, it is frustrating because there are no warning signs.

Well good for you that everything is going well! I’m at 80% LF right now, and I’m starting to have problems. Same thing happened five weeks ago when I was forced to cut back on capacity. For a few weeks I started seeing the LF go down incrementally, 95%, 84%, 76%. When it reached 76% I had to cut costs, which translates to cutting unprofitable routes…which used to be profitable. But other than that, the game is too inflexible in cutting costs as well. The only thing you can do is change service levels, which would be disastrous, or wages, which is even more disastrous, because both would affect the rating in the ORS and people would definitely not fly with you. Don’t get me wrong though! I love the game! And I know that there is no game that comes close to this one.

Well not everyone is going to have 100 planes, at least not me. The amount you grow depends on the market you are inserted. So the population of the country, number of competitors, etc. Just like in reality. And, in real life, if a company could sustain growing to 100 planes in a year, they would. They don’t because there is not enough demand for it. Another thing is, the market in reality does not fluctuate as much as the game does right now.

I also think that AGEX is a good idea. But I’m trying to point out is that AGEX is not meaningful without some type of event base, no market will suddenly drop 30-35% in two moths for no reason. It just becomes unpredictable and makes the game harder for no reason.

I would prefer that the AGEX would not be installed at all servers. So the customer could decide if he likes that feature or not.

I play in Croydon and we went through the same, AGEX went from 800 to barely 600 in 8 weeks, many of the big companies collapsed and I had to adjust my company, my LF went from 99 to 75… it survived miraculously because it was small.

So AGEX trouble is common for all players, I think it is a good fact of the game, but sometimes is too brutal since it is impossible to see the wave coming. I think that the idea of introducing a forecast will be really helpful for planning. Otherwise is quite a random thing how to plan the expansion of your company.

Hi,

I believe the AGEX was (at least partly) introduced to make the game more difficult for mega airlines. Mega airlines can suck up a lot of passengers and can make life very difficult for new and inexperienced players. It is more difficult to adjust things if you have 1000 planes flying around than if you have a fleet of 100 aircraft.

Dimodesto is right. Growth rate depends on the region where you operate your airline. And I believe that it can be very difficult to survive if you operate an airline in a country or region with less passenger demand. Even without the AGEX going up and down.

Press releases would be nice. But then the AGEX should be programmed with trends (perhaps it is) and the press releases should be automated. The AS team would curse if they had to start writing economic news bulletins for every server.

But to be honest, I don’t know if it is pure coincidence that the AGEX has gone down on Tempelhof and remains quite high on Pearls. If I ran a game like this, I would be tempted to adjust passenger demand to the number of players on a server. Don’t say it is but it would be a good thing, if only to avoid 250 mega airlines on a server with 300 players :wink:

Jan