Demand, Supply, Flight spacing

Does the spacing between flights affect how many passangers will fly the airline?

Scenario A)

Imagine there is 300 seats demand, and I have (for example) one flight departing at 00.01 am and other one at 00.02 am, and there is no competition on the route, would I get all 300 seats regadless of (time) spacing between the flights?

Scenario B )*

There is more demand (300 seats) than supply (260 seats). My comeptitor flies at 08.00 am and I fly at 08.05 am. Would we both fill the planes?

Scenario C)

There is more supply (390 seats) than demand (300 seats). The competitor flies at 01.00 am and 02 am and I fly at 02.00 pm (again just an example). Would the spacing between the flights between me and my competitor have any effect on the demand that I get?

*side question: why is the board programmed that B with ) will result in B)

There are two factors influencing the supply. One is the direct supply between Cities A and B, that is also fueled by the ground Network. That is a fix number. The other one is based on the Passengers that arrive at Airport A and B. This is  fueled by your Hub system and your IL Partners as well as other Airlines arriving at your Airport but have no IL with you. How this is distributed I am not sure and I doubt that AS will say haw they do it  ;) . But as a matter of fact is that there are flights that can be full even if you fly the same time, 5 min later or 1 hrs later. And there are flights where you will not get passengers on a flight that is 5 min later. Just try it out and If the flight is full ..... leave it ....if its empty .... then find a new destination .....

If you have an interlining agreement at an airport, be sure to leave at least the minimum amount of transfer time required for that airport. That will have an impact on your loads.

Does the spacing between flights affect how many passangers will fly the airline?

Hi,

spacing your flights will not affect the number of bookings on a direct route. It will only affect the number of transfer passengers if the different flights offer connections to more and/or other destinations.

Scenario A)

Imagine there is 300 seats demand, and I have (for example) one flight departing at 00.01 am and other one at 00.02 am, and there is no competition on the route, would I get all 300 seats regadless of (time) spacing between the flights?

If you ignore competition (you are the only player on the server ;-)

Let's say your two planes had each 100 seats and the same ORS rating, and you activated the flight schedule without delay, this is more or less what would happen:

- day zero: planes are waiting until the departing airport calculates its demand.

- first demand calculation: both planes get 100 passengers each on day one. The remaining 100 passengers would book 50 seats for each flight on day two.

- second demand calculation: both flights on day two get an additional 50 bookings and are full. The remaining 200 passengers book a flight on day three and fully book your two planes for that day.

- third demand calculation: your two flights are fully booked three days ahead.

- following days: 200 passengers can book a flight 3 days ahead. All flights for the next three days are fully booked and the remaining 100 passengers decide to take the train to reach their destination  :-)

Scenario B )*

There is more demand (300 seats) than supply (260 seats). My comeptitor flies at 08.00 am and I fly at 08.05 am. Would we both fill the planes?

All possible flights in the ORS system for the next 3 days can get bookings. So it doesn't matter if you fly before or after your competitor.

As there is more demand than seats, both planes will probably be fully booked. Mind you... if one flight has an ORS rating of 99, and the other has a rating of 50, the plane with the higher rating should get more bookings. Let's say the daily flight with the higher rating gets 170 passengers, and the other 130 passengers. In this case both flights would be fully booked for today, but the flight with the higher rating will already have 40 bookings for tomorrows flight.

Scenario C)

There is more supply (390 seats) than demand (300 seats). The competitor flies at 01.00 am and 02 am and I fly at 02.00 pm (again just an example). Would the spacing between the flights between me and my competitor have any effect on the demand that I get?

No. When the departure airport calculates its daily demand, it will check all available flights for the next three days. Different ORS ratings will decide how the bookings are shared between you and your competitor.

But... if your flight leaves less than 2 hours before the airport calculates its demand, your flight may not getting any bookings the first day.

Jan

You seem to know a lot of the detailed information Jan, that is very insightfull, thank you! I was just wondering on how you know all this detailed information, is that pure experience through the years?

Rgds

Arjen

Hi Arjen,

I am curious, so I try to figure out how things work  :-)

Beside, not everything I say is 100% correct. In my previous post I wrote for instance how passenger demand is allocated to flights the first day, and then left over passengers book a plane for the next day. In reality the system books seats three days ahead, sometimes even if tomorrows plane is not yet fully booked. But I think my observations are correct in explaining the great lines and principles of how things work.

The basic question is always: how do I sell tickets and make a good profit on these tickets ? And the answer lays in the formulas and logarithms used by the software. I don't need to know every exact formula because that would take the fun out of the game. But I want a decent insight in how things work.

Jan