Traffic calculation nonsense after recent demand update

I have noticed at least half of my routes suffered this strange effect where traffic demand in one direction is nowhere near close to the opposite direction. The ratio which used to be more less 1:1 has now dropped to 2:1 or even 3:1 or even more… up to 30:0 on one route. This is so since the recent traffic demand recalculation (great job).

Basically this makes it impossible for me to schedule reasonable routes on half of my flights. It seems as a complete nonsense to me but maybe there is some sense behind the scenes that I am missing.

Anybody?

Captura de pantalla 2020-07-08 a las 22.04.22 Captura de pantalla 2020-07-08 a las 22.04.01 Captura de pantalla 2020-07-08 a las 22.03.41

I have the same problems with some of my flights.

Some routes I have already had to give up because it didn’t make any sense to fly them.

The problem remains for weeks and without competition.

So there seems to be a lot of emigrants.
Maybe someone from the admins can say something about that.

Greetings

Eike

Just to be sure - there isn’t a chance that pax are taking an onward flight which conveniently connects in this direction but does not in the other?

Good point. I checked this . The ratio of external guests or switches is balanced in my example. Depending on the day with the badly booked flight even a little better.

Generally, the demand between two airports AAA-BBB is always the same both ways.

As TheThomate mentioned, connections are the most common reason for for load factors on a return flight. Combined with departure and arrival times, ORS ratings, competition, ground networks, demand distribution time at involved airports and so on, it’s difficult to find a specific cause and adjust to it - while someone else might be having the same issues in the opposite travel direction (I mean, the passengers still have to go somewhere). The more flights and capacity you offer, some of the factors even out though, so it tends to become less of a problem then.

Just reminds me now that I read the TOs post…
I had the very same issue this summer. Old grown airline with perfectly coordinated waves of hundreds of airframes to both directions and absolutely stable bookings throughout the year. All of a sudden I had a massive drop of loads in only one direction. Affected were flights between the US westcoast and several central US hubs - but only ever just one direction while the other was fully booked. Made absolutely no sense given the number of flights with hundreds of top ranked connections.

Did it resolve in any way later on or the low bookings in one direction just kept on?

some people also apply cheaper prices on one segment than another (especially since ASEnhancement), so that could be a reason why…check the ORS/Market Analysis both ways :slight_smile: - you can also price the return cheaper if you’re happy with your outbound loads

I think I can rule out these causes that have been discussed here in my case.

Is it certain that there is no bug in the system? I don´t want to increase my sucsess unfairly with this message but I still suspect a bug…

EDIT: It is possible to open a ticket so that someone can have a look at it? I really don´t wan to mae anybody unnecessarly work, but thats strange.

It was that way some time after a patch, but then it resolved without me doing anything.
I just checked and yes, loads are all back to symmetry.

There definitely used to be some bugs, but I don’t know if they were fixed because last time I’d seen them was about two years ago.

Classic example was BEG-TIA. Full planes (with local pax only, no transfers) towards TIA, absolutely empty departing from TIA.

Okay funnily enough I am experiencing it right now.

DXB-BGW is filled. BGW-DXB is quite empty though. Connex pax can’t be an issue, I’ve got even more connex pax on BGW-DXB than the other way round.

Are you the highest in ORS? Sometimes the ORS is different between the directions…

Yes I’ve checked. I am both times. Also the amount of lower rated non-direct connections is almost the same, with the highest of non-direct connections having the same ORS rating aswell.

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You are welcome to look at an example (of many) in my case.

DTM-ZAG
ZAG-DTM
LGL Airlines.

Another city pair where I can see this behaviour is DXB-RUH. Full flights out of RUH but bad loads out of DXB, even though I’ve got more connex pax on the emptier flight.

Any Chance for a investigation @Spezialist?

The highest in the ORS will not necessarily fill up its plane if he does not have the right connections to feed it, the right service, the right partnerships, the right plane, the right staff, etc. …
It also depends a lot on the Agex index.
What game world are you on?

I’ve noticed an odd difference in DEL-BOM demand. DEL-BOM in my case seems to get 15% less bookings while BOM-DEL is easily filled to 100% after 1-2 demand calculations.

I noticed this on the previous private server I play on and it has always striked me as odd. Connections were definately not an issue. Currently I’m seeing it again.
If there is a flaw somewhere this could be another route to check up on.

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