# Introduction to Aircraft Crash Possibility Module

Hi there,

I really enjoy playing this game. This is the simulator I wanted for a long time.

I have thought of few ideas which would be really interesting to implement in game as it would make playing it even better experience.

I introduce you to my idea on how could Aircraft Accidents system work.

This would give more realism to this game. And some feeling that the world here is dynamic not fixed. Every calculation will be done by computer.

[b]How would it work?

EVENT DAY[/b]

Every day at fixed time there would be a calculation done to see if today something will happen. It would be 5% of event happening and 95% of nothing happening.

( I know that this would be much more higher frequency of accident happening than real life but remember it is a game)

EVENT HOUR

IF it is decided that something will happen ( 5%) then another calculation is done to see when in that day the event will happen. It can happen any time between the time the Event calculation was done till 24 hours (when the next day Event calculation is done).

Every hour would have equal chance to be selected as an Event Hour so it is around 4.2% chance that this will happen at any hour in 24 hours.

Planes in the Event

Every plane which has a departure at a given day and at a given hour will be placed in the Accident Database.

Accident Database.

Then all planes are selected they are given points which show their chances of "winning" the Accident Lottery. Basically the more points your Airplane gets the higher the chances that it will "win" the Accident Lottery. Points can be viewed as how many tickets one plane has and as you have more tickets you have bigger chances of winning the lottery.

For now I have thought of two main factors it is Aircraft Age and Maintenance % ( I was thinking about Aircraft condition but it would be too hard to calculate what it will be at that hour)

Aircraft age and Points gained

0-10 years 1 point

10-20 years 5 points

20-30 years 25 points

30-40 years 125 points

40-99 years 625 points

Maintenance % and Point gained

Max - 200% 0 point

200%-175% 1 points

175%-150% 2 points

150%-125% 4 points

125% -100% 16 points

100%-0% 256 points

Accident Lottery

After all Aircrafts got their points the lottery begins. Each aircraft gets a lottery ticket for every point they have. And it is just simple random number selection. And we have a WINNER!!!!

Aircraft accident

Finally then the Aircraft is selected the three following accidents may happen each having 33% chance of happening.

1. Aircraft crashed due to pilots mistake

2. Aircraft crashed due to mechanical error

3. Emergency landing after engine explosion in midair everyone are ok

IF #1 or #2 happened there would be a calculation done on how many passengers survived it can be from 0% - 90% of PAX survived (not 100% because that is what #3 is)

[b]Consequences

IF #1 happened:

1.[/b] The plane will be destroyed (removed from your fleet) it is good if you just leased a plane but very sad if you bought it.

2.You will have to pay 250,000AS\$ for every dead passenger which was on board your Aircraft and 10,000AS\$ for every alive passenger (You pay to families of those who died and you pay to survivors for their psychological trauma) (however, this can be done over period of 1 or 2 months so that the airline does not go bankrupt if fully loaded A380 goes down)

3.Your Airline rating on every flight in ORS is -30 the original value. (this will decrease by 10 every week so after 3 weeks you will have no more negative effects on your ORS rating)

4. If you leased a plane you will have to pay 50% of aircraft value to the owner. (this also could be done over period of 1 or 2 months)

[b]IF #2 happened:

1.[/b] same as IF #1 happened.

2. You will have to pay 125,000AS\$ for every dead passenger which was on board your Aircraft and 5,000AS\$ for every alive passenger (You pay to families of those who died and you pay to survivors for their psychological trauma but half of the sum is paid by manufacturer as it was mechanical error)

3. Your Airline rating on every flight in ORS is -15 the original value. (this will decrease by 5 every week so after 3 weeks you will have no more negative effects on your ORS rating)

4. If you leased You will have to pay 25% of aircraft value to the owner

IF #3 happened.

1. You will have to pay 10% of aircraft value to repair the airplane. (the repair is done in half the time needed to produce the airplane)

2. You will have to pay 2,500AS\$ for every passenger

3. Your Airline rating on every flight in ORS is -5 the original value for one week.

Limitations

I know everyone will start to say that this will be very hard for small airlines so those limitations will save them.

Aircraft will not enter Accident Lottery IF:

Airline was created less than 4 weeks ago

Airline fleet has less than 20 planes

What do you think about this idea and would it work within AS?

Don’t forget the image to the manufacturers will be shifted too.

I know there could be many more things. But still not everything can happen in AS what happens in real life as real life is just to complicated to simulate

What you propose would not really affect big airlines at all. They would just eat the bullet and go along, hardly noticing the event. What it will really do would be to anger small and medium airline players, many of whom are focused a lot on realism and play their game with that in mind. Let’s be honest, planes don’t crash every fortnight, indeed, air transport is one of the safest ways of moving around.

How do you calculate the possibilities of human error? I don’t think pilot mistake is statistically relevant to the age of the planes nor the maintenance ratio.

As to the maintenance error, I think the possibility of a maintenance error is equal to all aircrafts regardless of the age. I don’t see why maintenance error has a larger chance happening on older planes.

With respect to the possibility of something will happen in AS. 5% is way too high.

do not forget on few possible things

strike - aircraft crew - (if you pay to low salary % below average)

strike 1-12H - airport ground facilities - random event on some airport (chance 0,1%)

Sry I think we discussed this earlier - but again: There is no way to really "predict" an accident. Of course insurance companies create certain quotas, but these depend on the individual company beeing insured. You assume simply that every airplane has the same chance of crashing but do not take into account the real reasons behind those events. In fact aircraft accidents are so few in number it would be hard to create any pattern that does make sense…

Sorry, but I absolutely dislike that idea (and it doesn´t get any better by repeating it every few weeks).

Airlinesim is a game. It is fun! What do these ´"events" contribute to having fun? Nothing. They would be only frustrating. Many games have that kind of "events", e.g. Cities in Motion - and it was that feature that made me finally rejecting the game. Because I dont want to spend my free time for getting frustrated.

If Airlinesim introduced accidents, I would quit.

If i am flying with a maintenance above 100% and the condition is always above 90% i get an disadvantage? The details are as stupid as the idea.

Thank you for replies

It looks like I am the only one who liked that idea

Bigger companies will have a lot bigger chances that their plane will go down because they have so many planes departing every hour.

@seair

AS is a game. If it would take into account everything it would be much more calculations and very hard on the servers. This is how you could simulate some real world events in AS.

@darky007

For sure you can think of many events which could happen. I selected those just for it to look simple and understandable.

@eky

I know! That is why even planes with 0 years of age will get points. Even newest planes can have problems (B787 as example in rl). And No every plane has different chances of crashing. The older and less maintained aircraft will be much more likely to crash just like in real life.

@Fluggast07

You would be happy if event happened to you even once in 1 year. As chances that it will happen to you is extremely low. Imagine how many planes are departing at one hour. The chance that your plane will be hit is 0.05(Event chance) * 0.042(Event hour) * 0.01 (if there is 100 same planes with same maintenance and age) = 0.000021 = 0.0021% And the chance that it will happen at least once in 1 year is 365 * 0.000021 = 0.007665 = 0.7665%

@Andreamilano

No. That is why I think we have to look not into condition but maintenance. As said in the first post.

The idea is good.

But then should an insurance policy be available.

This should be voluntary and be in three levels

1: liability insurance covers third party damage (death and injury)

2: part insurance (same as 1 plus the expenses aircraft owner, but you lose the aircraft)

3: full insurance no financial loss.

Of course, the price of insurance is calculated in relation to the risk

So a fleet of brand new aircraft will cost significantly less than a fleet of 25-30 year old aircraft.

One can use the same scale as you have already made, saying that the base price is 500 AS per week, for liability

For part insurance 1000 AS per week

For full insurance 1500 AS per week

A new aircraft with 110% maintenance will cost : 1x16x500 = 8000 AS liability

``````																			 1x16x1000 = 16000 AS part insurance

1x16x1500 = 24000 AS full insurance
``````

While a 17 year old airplane with 110% maintenance will cost : 5x16x500 = 40000 AS of liability

``````   																									5x16x1000 = 80000 AS part insurance

5x16x1500 = 120000 AS full insurance
``````

A 32-year old aircraft with 98% maintenance will cost 125x256x500 = 16000000

It would be a big risk to run with old aircraft and not to mention very expensive to minimize the risk with insurance

I will state it again - first of all this is pure fantasy and I imagine fueled only by bad feelings some of the posters have towards some of the players who are more successful than they are. Secondly, being a decent sized airline, I would just bite the bullet as proposed above, not bother with any insurances and whatever and just disregard the whole stuff. Would be hard to notice in the weekly balance anyway.

What is wrong with you?

I have never said anything bad about players who use old aircraft. I even support them as I wrote in one of the threads days ago that in this game using old aircraft is smart. This has nothing to o with players or new server. It was just my idea which I had in mind and just wanted to share how would it be possible to implement it.

I was not writing specifically about you, just in general. If you think about you have to realise the cause of the ideas like that is unhappiness with how quickly some airlines grow. And a want to limit it somehow. Just read the comments in this thread and many others. If you feel offended by my post then please accept my apology.

As for the idea - you proposed it, I have stated my opinion about it. I think it’s highly unrealistic and more importantly impossible to implement in any meaningful way without blowing up the whole game. The only thing achieved would be a frustrated mob of players.

I agree. However, I think a better way is to use a simplified model to simulate the real world rather than to deploy an unrealistic model.

To be frank, I don’t think there is any existing studies or data that can support any settings in your model. Therefore, it would be better if you can explain how you choose those numbers and how to build up the model. Without a more detailed description to illustrate that your model is not a combination of some random figures and settings, I don’t think it is a good idea for AS to consider it.

For example, [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Aircraft age and Points gaine[/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]d.[/font][/color] [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Why[/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] [/font][/color][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]1 point for planes aged 0~5 years? Why not 2 points? How about 5 points? What’s the difference between those numbers? Why did you choose 1 instead of 2 or 5?[/font][/color]

How to combine those points? To sum up or to multiply them? Why?

Last but not least, an easy way to solve the controversy of old planes is to start the next new world without any used airplanes. The more models you add to a system, the more bugs it will have.

It has nothing to do with the growth of airlines, you can have a very big fleet and still have a very low chance of something happening. What increases your chances of dissaster is poor mainenance and old equipment just as in real life in most cases (Well this is based on my knowledge whatching Air Crash Investigation and Mayday series). I accept your opinion as everyone looks differently at this games so it is ok that you do not like this idea

@seair

Yes it is true that i did not search for any studies or anything.

Those numbers are from my head thinking just how it might look. If AS wanted to implement something like that there should be a lot of testing and tweaking to be done to make it fit in game.

Basically I think that Age is bigger factor so every group points increase by 5^n (where n is group number starting from second group being 1) 0-10 age planes get one point simply to simulate that even planes with very good maintenance sometimes can go down for some reason but the chance is extremely low. Maintenance points are similar to Age points but they increase by 2^n.

And once again I am not dissatisfied with players using old planes as I used them too. This is just my idea which will make this game even better for me at least

There wouldn’t be any controversy if players would have gone the way to go for a new server, given the new aircraft market settings.

There was enough time for everyone to make plans before the server actually went online.

If more players would have gone for old planes, prices for them would have skyrocketed, making them not better than starting with new ones.

Those who failed to see the way to go now seem to be whining and complaining all over the forums, demanding for regulation, penalties and whatsoever.

As I said in another thread - for those not happy with old aircraft - an option would be to make it like on older server starts (with the old aircraft market):

Issue old aircraft for sale only, not for lease.

As for the crash thing: Me not like the idea. Absolutely not.

1. There can’t be maint better than 100%, so why punish one with extra points the closer he gets to a maint ratio of 100%?

2. Older aircraft requiremore and more care which certainly is costly, yes. Are they less safe if well maintained? No. At least not to such an extend.

Please stay on the topic - no discussion about the aircraft market here!

Sorry for my harsh words but such an “crash module” is vicious!!! A aviation accident is alway a tragedy! Especially when lifes are lost! THIS is a game! It shall bring fun. I’dont want to play a game where I have to consider unforeseeable consequences like this and to price in consequential charges like compensation payments for surviving dependants! Thats creepy!

Strikes? Fine. Random technical failures in case of poor maintenance? Fine. But crashes? No way!

Based on my watching of ACI and Mayday, I think most air crashes were caused by human errors rather than the age of the airplane. Perhaps, you also can take Staff Mood into consideration.

I appreciate your effort to come up with something interesting and challenging for AS. From my point of view, your current model is not mature and sound enough to be introduced.

BTW, personally, I wish no accident will ever happen in real life nor in AS.